China's economy will continue to rebound in 2021 with expected growth of around 8.8 percent, according to the China Economic Security Outlook Report 2021 released recently by Peking University.
The report predicted China's growth rate of consumption, investment and foreign trade will all rise year-on-year. The increase in the growth rate of consumption is deemed a result of the low cardinal number effect, price hike and policies for stabilizing consumption and stimulating domestic demand. The low cardinal number and policies will also contribute to the growth rate surge in investment. Fading impact from the pandemic, the gradual recovery of the global economy as well as the low cardinal number and policy support is thought to boost the growth rate of China's exports. The recovery in demand and low cardinal number will support the rise in the import growth rate.
The report warned the economy still has exposure to some risks. The debt increase for real estate firms has a relatively high risk in cash flow, creating potential jeopardy in the property market. In addition, there are still the issues of larger nonperforming local debts, greater pressure from hidden debts, and the potential for a global liquidity crisis to surface once again.
"Our judgment on the total economic security situation is that fluctuations are inevitable, and so are risks, but the macroeconomic situation and macroeconomic security of China have no problems. The probability of a big problem is very small," said Su Jian, chief editor of the report.