The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday projected China's economy to expand by 4.4 percent in 2026, a forecast that underscores the country's resilience amid global headwinds from the Middle East conflict.
The forecast was unveiled during the 2026 Spring Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank Group, or WBG, held in Washington from April 13 to 19.
The latest World Economic Outlook was released as the heads of the IMF, the WBG, and the International Energy Agency met on Monday to coordinate their response to the conflict, one day ahead of its release.
The 2026 figure for China is higher than the October 2025 forecast, though slightly lower than the update in January.
"Growth in China for 2026 is revised upward by 0.2 percentage points, relative to October (a 0.1 percentage point downward revision from January), to 4.4 percent, reflecting the carryover from stronger growth in 2025, lower US effective tariff rates on Chinese goods, and stimulus measures offsetting the negative impact of the shock induced by the Middle East conflict," the report stated.
China's gross domestic product grew 5 percent year on year in 2025, meeting the annual target of around 5 percent, official data showed in January.
IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas wrote in the accompanying blog that the Middle East conflict, which broke out on Feb 28, has disrupted global energy markets and raised commodity prices.
"The shock's ultimate magnitude will depend on the conflict's duration and scale," he said.
The outlook report highlighted that while global growth showed resilience in 2025, it was significantly hampered by headwinds from US tariff measures and policy uncertainty.
Yet the fund's reference forecast assumes the conflict will be relatively short-lived, allowing disruptions to fade by mid-2026. Even so, under this reference scenario, global growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026, while headline inflation rises to 4.4 percent.
Emerging markets
According to the IMF report, China's projected 4.4 percent growth in 2026 remains well above the global average of 3.1 percent and the 3.9 percent forecast for emerging markets and developing economies as a group.
The report noted that China has benefited from a significant easing of US-China trade tensions. However, although the US' effective statutory tariff rate has fallen well below earlier assumptions, US imports from China have still dropped sharply. The IMF said that these shifts are partly due to the distorting effects of trade restrictions. Chinese exporters successfully redirected shipments to other Asian economies and Europe, supporting a stronger overall export performance.
In a joint statement issued on Monday, the heads of the IMF, IEA and WBG warned against the war's impact.
"As we noted earlier this month, the impact of the war is substantial, global, and highly asymmetric, disproportionately affecting energy importers, in particular low-income countries," the statement said.
"The shock has led to higher oil, gas and fertilizer prices, triggering concerns about food security and job losses as well."
The three organizations pledged closer coordination to provide tailored policy advice and, where needed, financial support.
Despite external pressures from higher energy prices, China's economic resilience stands out, the IMF said.
The IMF also pointed to China's ample policy space. For example, Chinese domestic stimulus and lower tariffs have helped cushion the shock from the Middle East. The fund cautioned that globally, the increasing use of industrial policies and trade barriers, notably seen in recent US policy shifts, could further fragment the global economy and undermine the medium-term outlook.
China's 2027 growth is projected at 4.0 percent, reflecting a gradual moderation as the economy shifts toward higher-quality development.
In the foreword to the report, Gourinchas said that with the right policies, "including a swift cessation of hostilities and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the damage could remain limited".
He added that "international financial organizations such as the IMF were born out of a vision … to promote economic and financial cooperation and integration, to the benefit of all".
The IMF noted that China's domestic stimulus measures and strong export performance have helped offset the negative impact of the external shock induced by the Middle East conflict. Taken together, the latest World Economic Outlook report shows that China is maintaining solid growth despite these external pressures.